Last week I had an exciting discussion with an economist about which events will be successful in 2023. Economists love making models and deriving conclusions from them. I therefore asked him to briefly describe his model. I’m curious if you agree with his 3 conclusions?

He writes:

“From today’s perspective, the world was still fine up until a few years ago. No war, no pandemic, no inflation, few extreme weather events and no looming recession. You had your work and your pastimes, which were either exciting or soothing, depending on your mood.

All of this can be shown in a diagram. The externally specified intensity level of life was assumed to be at the level of I.1. Let’s say I did something every other day of the month. I could choose between activities that had a calming effect on me (green dots) or activities that were more exciting (red dots). If I wanted to live an exciting life, I selected more activities above the externally specified intensity level; if I wanted to calm down, the activities were below the external intensity level. Generally, the activities oscillated around the given level of intensity, it was a well balanced life.

However, in recent years, dramatic changes have occurred: war, pandemic, inflation, etc. This has caused my external intensity level to increase significantly. In the diagram this is represented by line I.2. What happens to my leisure activities now?

Due to the extremely high intensity level of my life, I will now do everything I can to reduce my intensity in my free time. In doing so, I will orientate myself on my previous reference line I.1, since it will take a few years until I have adjusted to the new, more intensive life.

And here are the three assumptions that can be represented with the small model:

1. Above all, activities are carried out that have a relaxing effect and that are below the previous intensity level. Activities with an exciting character are carried out less.

For example: I would prefer to listen to a one-hour concert with easy music than to a controversially discussed long opera production

2. When choosing calming activities, draw on those that have proven to be good for me in the past. New activities are tried less because there is a risk that they will not please and will not lead to relaxation but to excitement.

For example: it is better to go to a well-established and proven series of concerts than to try out a new event format, in other words, new event formats will need longer to be established

3. And an additional assumption: Fewer activities are carried out overall. In the past it might have been 14 a month, now it might only be 7.

For example: 1 instead of 2 concert visits per month, 1 instead of 2 restaurant visits per month

Everyone will have their own opinion on these predictions. In any case, as a concert pianist, I have already drawn my own conclusions from this. What is your opinion on this subject?

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